Kaedah DOW 1 2 3

Kalau dah cekap guna fractal,boleh guna kaedah Dow 1 2 3...dow kot namanya lupe plak aku...
aku sendiri pun tak cekap..just share2

Yang chart di atas tu guna M15. Yang di bawah tu guna M5.

Ulang Kaji 4

Sarapan    :   AUD,NZD,JPY) boleh trade
Lunch       :   EUR,USD,JPY,GBP
Dinner      :   Paling best EUR,USD,GBP

Mengapa????? 

Mungkin sebab trading sesion atau gold value

Ulang Kaji 3

jam 4.00 pagi hingga 12 tghari.....
jam 12 tghari hingga 4 petang...
jam 4.00 petang hingga 12 tgh malam...
dan 12 tgh malam hingga 4.00 pagi...... kenapa.....??????

karena kita berpegang pada beberapa perkara:-

a. Trend.....ikut trend..... gunakan trend yang besar sebagai panduan kita....

b. trade apa yang kita lihat dan bukan apa yang kita dengar...maksdunya kalau kita nampak sesuatu trend telah wujud..maka ikutlah trend itu dan usah dihiraukan apa yang orang lain kata.... sebab keputusan adalah di tangan kita ..duit kita maka kita yang uruskan....TETAPI ingat anda kena pastikan dengan membaca dan mengira..membaca maksudnya semua fakta news..mengira maksudnya adalah buat keputusan berdasarkan teknikal indicator.

c. MM

d. disiplin........

ULANG KAJI 2 - WHA928

Tidak ada yang "TIDAK MUNGKIN" dalam istilah hidup kita, sebab dalam perkataan "TIDAK MUNGKIN"ada perkataan "MUNGKIN"... Jadi percayalah yang kita ada ALLAH untuk membantu kita selagi kita sujud padaNya...

~SESEORANG YG TAKUT MELAKUKAN KESILAPAN TIDAK AKAN MENEMUAI SESUATU YG MENAKJUBKAN~

Tidak ada kecerdasan yang lebih baik daripada kecerdasan yang lain. Kecerdasan terbaik bagi anda ialah kecerdasan yang anda miliki bukan yang dimiliki oleh orang lain

forex adalah perniagaan jangka panjang, jd hanya karena MM dan disiplinlah kita akan menjana kemenangan

Ulang Kaji 1

Bagi 'wiseman trader' yang masuk urus niaga dengan Bullish/Bearish Divergence Bar (BDB), tidak kira berada di 'time frame'mana, ia akan memberi kelebihan kerana kita sudah diberi panduan di mana perlu 'Pending Order' dan di mana perlu ' Stop Loss'. 

Tetapi bagi yang masuk ikut 'breakout fractal', kadang-kadang keliru di mana perlu berada SL dan berapa sanggup tanggung kerugian.Apatah lagi yang masuk dengan kaedah 'ikut suka', maka ini akan memberi kesan yang agak parah kerana masuk tanpa alasan yang logik kenapa masuk. (KLIK )

The Zen of "Dont Know"

[The following is taken from p.80-81 of Trading Chaos (2nd.) by Bill Williams (2004).]

The heart of Zen is the koan, a question with no rational answer, such as why does ice cream have no bones? Observe your mind as you focus on such a question. Does it strive for an answer or does it reject it as ridiculous? A feeling of “don’t know” is generally uncomfortable for most Westerners. But just let it be okay to “don’t know.” Look for that open spacious feeling of the don’t-know mind. The don’t-know mind has room for absolutely anything and everything.

Choose a situation in your trading whose outcome cannot be predicted. Focus your attention on the question, while trying to maintain a sense of “don’t know” in your mind. Notice the attempts to make rational predictions. Is it in a fifth wave? Is there a conjunction of Jupiter and Mars? Watch your mind as it vacillates between answer seeking and “don’t know.” Try incorporating more of “don’t know” into your daily life. Will I catch that plane? Don’t know. Will the bus be on time? Don’t know. Will the bonds go up tomorrow? Don’t know.

One last question. Will you use these techniques in your trading? Don’t know? That’s okay too.

Remember that how we respond to whatever happens is more important, in the long run, than what happens. This approach teaches us that how we respond to our thoughts is more important than the thoughts themselves. We are learning to watch the process of the mind, instead of getting caught up in the content of each thought that passes through. And we know that the process of learning to deal skillfully with whatever occurs is far more important than attempting to control the outcome or content of each particular incident in our lives.

If we practice living in the now, with awareness of and compassion for our daily fears and desires, we can deal powerfully and effectively with whatever happens in our lives. Painful thoughts, even unpleasant events, can be used to remind us of the meditative work that is our most real and important job on this Earth. In this way we can turn all that happens, painful or pleasant, into grist for our meditative mill. We will be building our bridges from the very boulders that seem to block our path.

All of this ranting and these exercises may seem a long way from “how to make profits in the markets this week,” but if I (B. W.) have learned any one thing in almost a half-century of actively and successfully trading the markets, this is the key: Your thoughts are your life!

The Three Wise Man and The Alligator

The Three Wise Men are 3 entry rules created by the Profitunity Trading Group, as described in the 2nd Edition of Trading Chaos by Bill Williams and his daugther Justine. In the rest of the article it will be explained how these Three Wise Men can make you profit.

Before the Three Wise Men: The Alligator

However, before introducing the Three Wise Men, an additional indicator must be mentioned first: the Alligator. The reason is that the Three Wise Men is nothing more than entry rules. You should also understand the philosophy behind the system, and nothing captures the Profitunity trading philosophy better than the indicator of Alligator, which actually is also invented by the Profitunity Trading Group.

Definition and facts

The Alligator is a collection of three moving averages, which are called the Lips, the Teeth and the Jaw and colored green, red and blue.

• The Lips (Green): smoothed moving average of 5 period, displaced 3 bars forward.
• The Teeth (Red): smoothed moving average of 8 period, displaced 5 bars forward.
• The Jaw (Blue): smoothed moving average of 13 period, displaced 8 bars forward.

How the Alligator works

The idea of the Profitunity trading strategy is to catch those big trending movements that occur for less than 40% of all time. Such moments can be identified by looking at the Alligator Lines.

Usually, before a big move happens, the price moves in a tight range and intertwines with the Alligator Lines. This is called a "sleeping alligator" because it is so quiet. Then it explodes into a big move. The price starts moving away from the Alligator, and the Alligator Lines are opening. This phase is dubbed the "hungry alligator" because it looks like an alligator wakes up from sleep and opens it mouth (distance between the lines) to chase the little fish (price bar) for breakfast.

In short, we are trying to catch the big trend which usually follows a quiet range, and it is pretty much how all other trend folllowing systems under the sun work. Conversely, when a trend starts to die out and starts moving in a range, we might consider taking a break or reduce lot size.

The Three Wise Men

Now onto the entry rules, i.e. the Three Wise Men. In order to understand them, you must have the following indicators on your charts:

1. Alligator (as described above)
2. Awesome Oscillator (details below)
3. Fractals (details below)

All are available in many charting softwares. Now let's meet the Three Wise Men below:

The First Wise Man: Divergent Bar

Definition and Facts (long)

1. The price is below the Alligator Lines.
2. The Divergent Bar must have a lower low than the previous bar.
3. The Divergent Bar must close on the upper half of the bar.
4. The flatter the Alligator and the further away the bar, the more reliable is the signal.
5. Opposite for short entry.

Entry and Exit (long)

1. Buy stop at top of the bar.
2. Stop loss at the bottom of the bar.
3. Take profit when opposite signal appears, or trail stop to 3-5 bars low.
4. Opposite for short entry.

Comments:

The divergent bar is basically what they call morning and evening stars in candlesticks. It is a way determining reversals in a ranging market. In earlier works by Bill Williams, the divergent bar was one of the five "magics bullets" that kills a trend, i.e. the five clues that signal the end of a trend.

According the 2nd Edition of Trading Chaos, Bill Williams said that with today's intraday volatility, it is important to get into a trend earlier at the reversal, instead of waiting for breakthrough of key level, which was the original entry method in the first edition of the book. The divergent bar is exactly what allows us to do this.

It must be noted that not all reversal involves the divergent bar. If that's the case, the two other Wise Men will be needed.

The Second Wise Man: The Awesome Oscillator (AO)

Definition and Facts:

1. The difference between a 5-period and 34-period median price moving average, which is actually the 5-34 MACD histogram.
2. Bars that are higher than the previous one are painted green, otherwise painted red.
3. Available in many technical software packages.

Entry and Exit (long):

1. Ideally it is preceded by the bullish divergence bar, or else must be preceded by a down fractal.
2. Buy when the AO shows three consecutive green bars.
3. Stop begins at the bottom the the bullish divergence bar or down fractal, then gradually trail up to the latest 3-5 bars low, or when a bearish divergence bar appears.
4. Opposite for short entry.

Comments:

The AO is actually a way to add on when the momentum is going into our favor. In the first edition of Trading Chaos, Bill Williams' choice of the 5-34 setting was for a very specific reason. It was based on some research of bar range and volume, and found that this setting has a very high correlation with the volume and range data which were necessary for identifying impulsion in the Elliot Wave Principle. Therefore, the AO can be very useful in forex markets when the volume data is absent.

It should also be noted that in another book, New Trading Dimensions, Bill Williams wrote 3 completely different entry rules with the AO. Perhaps this 3 consecutive same-color entry was a rule he newly discovered, which was intended as the fourth entry rule in addition to the 3 original ones. To know more about the other three entry signals with the AO, please read the above mentioned books.

However, the AO is more than just a provider of entry signals. The best use of it is to point out divergence in a trend. The divergence is the difference between price and momentum direction. For example, when a trend is showing higher highs, but the bars in the AO have lower highs, this is a case of divergence, and usually an end of trend will follow soon.

The Third Wise Man: The Fractal

Definition and Facts:

1. An up fractal is a high of a bar preceded by 2 lower highs and followed by 2 lower highs.
2. Signal of an up fractal is only valid if it is above the Alligator lines.
3. Vice versa for a down fractal.

Entry and Exit (long):

1. Buy on breakout of a valid up fractal (above Alligator).
2. Stop begins at the bottom the the bullish divergence bar or down fractal, then gradually trail up to the latest 3-5 bars low, or when a bearish divergence bar appears.
3. Opposite for short entry.

Comments:

The fractal is actually a breakout strategy on previous high or low. According to Williams, each fractal is an end of an Elliot Wave, and a breakthrough of each fractal marks a new impulsive wave, so that we are able to trade that wave even without knowing what wave we are in. Hardcore Elliot Theorist will never agree with him, but it is a good way to trade in any case.

The Three Wise Men in action

Here is a recent hourly chart in GBPUSD on 27th November 2009:

Keys:

1. A bearish divergence bar.
2. Sell signal by #1 taken (1.6687). Initial stop at the top of #1.
3. AO sell signal.
4. Sell signal by #3 taken (1.6691).
5. AO crosses zero line. (Confirming bearish momentum.)
6. Bullish divergence bar. Stop trailed to top of the bar, which was soon taken (1.6546). Buy signal not considered because Alligator is opening. Also a sell fractal.
7. Re-entry sell signal by #6 taken (1.6500).
8. AO sell signal.
9. Sell signal by #7 (1.6466) and #8 (1.6482) taken.
10. Another sell fractal
11. An up fractal. Stop moved down to here.
12. Sell signal by #10 (1.6412) taken.
13. All position closed by #11 (1.6430).

Total Profit: (1.6687 + 1.6691 - 1.6546 x 2) + (1.6500 + 1.6466 + 1.6482 + 1.6412 - 1.6430 x 4) = 424 pips.